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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It frequently functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's field is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and longtime underperformers rising collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still