Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
