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Increasing apprehensions have emerged regarding the possibility of armed conflict between East African countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational language has escalated in the last month.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has provoked a fierce rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in the previous year that his country's access to the sea was an vital issue, statements that Eritrea ignored.

Relations between the two countries have often been tense. Following a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a extensive sea border, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it landlocked.

Five years later, a territorial conflict erupted in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Latest Remarks from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and implied the intention to capture it through military means.

Recently, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "error" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "addressed soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "through military action".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Threats

In the face of persistent warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been restricted to brief comments on social media from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for sea access calling it "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a policy of claiming back previous domains.

Eritrean authorities alerted on 16 September that efforts to validate "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Ground

So far, there are no reports of major military movements in the frontier regions between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, government media has displayed completion events of numerous trainees at various military training camps.

The leader of human resources department of the armed forces, General Hachalu, recently said in an interview that the military was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Past Background of the Conflict

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, the territory was ruled by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the British military before turning into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the ruler terminated this agreement and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long internal conflict followed, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Independence was then confirmed by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their common border, leading to war in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the neighbors continued at odds.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President the president. The both leaders agreed to a declaration that the hostilities was over – a action that won the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then partners in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 internal conflict in the northern region.

Yet relations have subsequently deteriorated anew.